Year in Review
Looking back at the most significant news stories of the year.
Welcome back to The Burnett Breakdown. I have obviously not written a newsletter in quite some time but that should change in the new year. Make sure to subscribe if you haven’t already and share with anyone you think make enjoy it.
War in Ukraine
It should come as no surprise that I believe one of the most significant news story of 2022 is the ongoing war in Ukraine. To recap, Russia started to amass troops along its border with Ukraine at the end of 2021. The world anxiously waited to see whether this was Russia intimidating Ukraine or preparation for an invasion. On February 24th, Russia answered the question by launching a countrywide invasion starting the largest land war in Europe since World War II.
First and foremost, the war obviously has been life-changing and world-shattering for millions of Ukrainians. While an exact number is impossible to come by in war, it is estimated that over 200,000 people have died on both sides of the conflict. Ukraine has lost at least 13,000 soldiers alone according to Ukrainian President Zelensky. On top of this, Ukraine’s economy has been ruined and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian have become refugees. The tweet below offers a stunning visual for just how much life has changed in Ukraine in the last year.
While Ukrainians have been impacted the most by the war, the rest of the world has experienced fallout from the conflict as well. For example, the war isn’t to blame for casuing inflation, but the war certainly exasperated inflation. Sanctions on Russia and the destruction of Ukraine’s economy led to a drastic drop in the supply of crucial commodities that kept prices high. Beyond economics, the war has completed shifted the foreign policy of European countries such as Germany by halting their increasing reliance on Russia for natural gas/oil and incentiving more military spending. Not to mention, the risk of war pouring over into other countries (see Serbia and Kosovo or Poland in general) has drastically increased.
Finally, the war in Ukraine has become, and looks to become increasingly, a major issue in American politics. With the rise of isolationism on the right, the aid being sent to Ukraine by the United States has started and will continue to divide Republicans. It is tough to see how Republicans such as Matt Gaetz and Mitch McConnell can defer so drastically about Ukraine (see below) without there being issues down the line.
Midterms
That brings me to the second most significant story of the year: the midterms. One of the most tired cliches in politics is that “this election is the most important of our lives.” This is said by politicians to motivate their bases to show up and vote, but there is rarely any truth to it. In fact, the election that is actually the most important one isn’t known until years later after the results have had time to work themselves out.
I say that because I don’t want you to hear me saying that the 2022 midterm elections will go down in the history books as a monumental event. However, I do believe that this year’s midterms will prove instrumental in moving the Republican Party away from the Trump/MAGA style of politics that have dominated the last 6 years. To me, that is significant and a serious win for the Republican Party.
As I wrote about at the time, the Republican Party faced serious disappointment after gaining a mere 10 seats in the House of Representatives and losing ground in the Senate. The overall results weren’t as important as the sheer underperformance of certain Republican candidates compared to other ones.
To name a few, Mark DeWine outperformed JD Vance in Ohio by 9.5 points, Brian Kemp outperformed Herschel Walker in Georgia by almost 5 points, and Chris Sununu outperformed Don Bolduc in New Hampshire by almost 13 points. The overperforming candidates were incumbent govenors that had established a distinct identity outside of Trump. The underperforming candidates were all endorsed and hand selected by Trump in the primaries.
I think it is becoming clearer and clearer to the Republican Party and Republican voters that Trump and his style of politics is unpopular. Trump motivates Democrats to come out and vote, disincentivizes independents (even ones unhappy with the Democratic Party) to vote for Republicans, and encourages anti-Trump Republicans to sit out entirely.
Many people have been wrong predicting that Trump’s time running the Republican Party was up; however, I think the midterm election results were a crucial step in that direction. A political party can only take so many losses before they wise up and change strategy. Voters can only take so many losses before they cease to support a losing candidate. With the midterm results, I believe that both the Republican Party and Republican voters will finally move on from Trump.
On another note, the midterms saw the Democratic Party implement a sinister political strategy that is shameful but proved highly effective and will likely be adapted by both parties on a larger scale in future elections. To give some background, Democratic super PACs spent money in Republican primaries in an attempt to gin up support for more radical candidates that would be easier to beat in a general election.
This was particularly sinister because the candidates that the Democratic super PACs elevated were candidates that endorsed the 2020 stolen election narrative. Then, Democrats pushed the idea that America’s democracy was at stake in the general election even though the Democratic Party was largely responsible for those candidates.
For example, Peter Meijer is a Republican representative from Michigan who voted in favor of impeaching Donald Trump after January 6th. A Democratic super PAC spent money to boost Meijer’s primary opponent John Gibbs gambling that Gibbs would be easier to defeat in the general election than the more moderate Meijer. Sure enough, Gibbs lost to the Democrat, Hillary Scholten, in the general election.
This strategy was implemented by the Democratic Party across the country and was successful in every instance. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of this strategy will only encourage its use in future elections and warrants attention.
Roe v. Wade Overturned
Finally, the Supreme Court delivered its most significant opinion in my lifetime this summer in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. In this decision, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade which said the Constitution granted women the right to have an abortion. With the Dobbs decision, abortion policy will be decided at the state level instead of a nationwide dictate by the Supreme Court.
Obviously, this decision is most significant because it will help save the lives of the most vulnerable among us. While Dobbs is not the end of the pro-life fight, the decision means that states, such as Georgia with its heartbeat bill, can limit the accessbility of abortion undoubtably saving lives. This is a significant step in becoming a more just country.
Constitutionally, the Dobbs case is also significant as it removed the abortion debate out from the edicts of the U.S. Supreme Court into the various state legislative branches. Now, politicians and advocacy groups (on both sides) will have to debate, persuade, and compromise instead of deferring to the Supreme Court. It will also allow states like California and Alabama, two states with drastically different cultures and views on abortion, to have abortion policies that align with the citizens of their state. This is exactly as the framers of the Constitution envisioned serious and divisive political issues to be resolved.
Also, Dobbs is a shining example of how change is supposed to happen within our system of government. In my newsletter at the time, I wrote about the decades-long, arduous fight to overturn Roe v. Wade by conservatives lawyers and pro-life advocates. Dobbs was the culmination of that effort and should encourage conservatives to continue to work within our consitutional system instead of doing away with it.
Politically, Dobbs is going to continue to be important as the debate about abortion is not going away anytime soon. In particular, the Republican Party is going to be faced with some tough decisions regarding abortion as it is a losing issue for Republicans. As I wrote after the midterms,
Other than being clear that the pro-life movement still has a lot of work to do to, it’s also clear that abortion is not a popular issue for Republicans. It will be interesting to see if Republicans continue to advocate for pro-life policies or run away from the abortion issue in order to win elections. I have a feeling that the days of the Republican Party being a predominantly pro-life party may be coming to an end.
For many pro-lifers, abortion has been a line in the sand that immediately disqualified Democratic candidates from their consideration. Will those same pro-lifers be willing to immediately disqualify potential future Republican candidates that are pro-choice? If so, what does the Republican Party look like without pro-lifers? Where do pro-lifers go from there? Since Christians are the most pro-life, will the Republican Party lose its firm grip on white, evangelical Christians? These are all questions that have yet to be answered, but I believe will become ever more pressing with the Dobbs decision.
With that, I kiss 2022 goodbye and look forward to whatever awaits in 2023. See you next year.
God Bless,
Hunter Burnett
It’s been a pleasure to read your newsletter this year! Looking forward to many more in 2023