What is Happening in Somalia?

A drone strike and a raid highlight US policy in Somalia.

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(Photo by MC2 (SW/AW) Evan Parker. Released)

Somalia

A little over a week ago, the United States announced that it had “conducted a collective self-defense strike… approximately 260 km northeast of Mogadishu near Galcad, Somalia.” Then, it was reported that the United States “killed a senior Islamic State leader in an early-morning helicopter raid in a remote area of northern Somalia” this past Thursday. As you can imagine, these two stories piqued my interest in what is going on in Somalia.

First, some background on Somalia since it’s a country that Americans don’t have to think about very often (unless they are watching Captain Phillips). Somalia is located in East Africa on the Horn of Africa and borders countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia.

According to almost any measurement, Somalia is also one of the poorest countries in the world. For some comparison, the poorest state in the United States is Mississippi with a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita of $35,374. Somalia’s GDP per capita is a measly $447.

The situation has only become direr recently as many areas in Somalia are now facing food shortages bordering on famine due to a recent drought. The war in Ukraine has exasperated the issue since northeast Africa is heavily reliant on Ukrainian grain for food.

Somalia has also been in the midst of a civil war that has raged on and off for the last 3 decades in the country resulting in 1 million deaths and over 1 million refugees. The current Somali government recognized by the rest of the world is the Federal Government of Somalia (FSG) which was established in 2012, but it has continued to fight against insurgency groups.

Al-Shabaab

One of these insurgency groups is an Islamic extremist group called Al-Shabaab or “the Youth.” Al-Shabaab traces its roots back to an extremist group prominent in Somalia in the 1990s-early 2000s that was funded by Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. The group split in the early 2000s between younger and older factions with the younger faction morphing into Al-Shabaab.

In June 2006, Al-Shabaab teamed up with another Islamic sect to take control of the capital city of Somalia, Mogadishu. This led to the invasion of Somalia by the Ethiopian army at the behest of the Somali government and with the approval of the United States. Al-Shabaab was ousted from Mogadishu, but the intervention of Ethiopia, a predominantly Christian nation, radicalized Al-Shabaab even more.

Al-Shabaab is “one of al-Qaeda’s affiliates” referred to by al-Qaeda “as one of its regional branches.” Thomas Joscelyn wrote of Al-Shabaab’s goals, “Shabaab is waging jihad to topple the U.S.-backed government in Mogadishu and replace it with a totalitarian regime based on its radical version of sharia, or Islamic law.” Al-Shabaab, like al-Qaeda, wants to export its Islamic rule across the world using terroristic tactics. For example, Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for dozens of terrorist attacks in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia with a particularly deadly one occurring in October 2022 that killed at least 120 people in Mogadishu.

Essentially, Al-Shabaab is an extension of al-Qaeda located in Somalia.

U. S. Policy

The United States has been involved militarily in Somalia for decades at this point, going all the way back to 1993’s “Black Hawk Down” incident in Mogadishu. U. S. involvement drastically increased in Somalia following 9/11 and the subsequent War on Terror. See the chart below for a visual representation.

As you can see, the vast majority of U. S. involvement in Somalia has been via drone strikes that really ramped up during Donald Trump’s administration. Ironically, Trump withdrew the 700 U. S. troops that were stationed in Somalia at the end of his administration. The Biden administration has since reversed that decision albeit opting to send less than 500 troops back.

Why is the United States involved in Somalia? Related, does the President have the legal authority to be militarily involved in Somalia?

One justification for U. S. involvement in Somalia is that it is basically a continuation of the War on Terror. After 9/11, Congress passed the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001 (AUMF) which granted the President power “to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons.”

While al-Qaeda was the group primarily responsible for the 9/11 attacks, the nature of Jihadism makes clear distinctions between groups impossible in some instances. This leaves open the possibility that “associated groups” with al-Qaeda pose just as big of a threat to the United States as al-Qaeda did. As a result, the definition of an “associated group” matters a great deal when thinking about whether the President has the right to use military force.

In the context of Somalia, the question is whether Al-Shabaab is an “associated group” with al-Qaeda or not. If it is, then the President has the legal authority under the 2001 AUMF to conduct such drone strikes. If Al-Shabaab is not an “associated group” with al-Qaeda, then the President does not have the legal authority under the 2001 AUMF to conduct drone strikes against Al-Shabaab.

In 2016, the Obama Administration designated all of Al-Shabaab an “associated group” with al-Qaeda thus granting the President the legal authority to conduct military operations against them. Whether this is a proper designation or not for Al-Shabaab is a matter of expert debate, but, for our purposes, we will assume that it is a proper designation (there are enough experts that I trust that believe it is to make me feel okay with this). This means that U. S. drone strikes against Al-Shabaab are legal under the 2001 AUMF.

January 20th Strike

With that said, the drone strike that took place on January 20th and the raid that took place this past Thursday, January 26th have some noticeable differences that highlight an issue with U. S. policy in Somalia.

From its statement announcing the January 20th strike:

The U.S. is one of several countries providing support to the Federal Government of Somalia in its ongoing campaign to disrupt, degrade and defeat terrorist groups. Rooting out extremism ultimately requires intervention beyond traditional military means, leveraging U.S. and partner efforts to support effective governance, promote stabilization and economic development, and resolve ongoing conflicts. [emphasis added]

U.S. Africa Command is the defense arm of the U.S. whole-of-government approach with African partners -- diplomacy, development and defense. This three-pronged, or “3D” approach aims to increase cooperation and support for “partner-led, U.S.-enabled” solutions to shared security challenges, including violent extremism or terrorism.

Reading the emphasized section, the drone strike of January 20th sounds much more like a broader nation-building endeavor in Somalia than a limited strike against an “associated group” to al-Qaeda. While I’m not as opposed to nation-building as many on the Right (probably another newsletter at some point), I’m not sure that the 2001 AUMF ought to be the legal vehicle that is used to justify it being done in Somalia.

In Afghanistan and Iraq (through separate legislation), the United States had clear Congressional approval to topple the existing regimes in those countries and then a security interest in helping to establish a new government. In Somalia, the President simply doesn’t have the same legal authority.

As a result, I think the United States’ involvement in Somalia needs to be limited to military intervention against the al-Qaeda “associated group” of Al-Shabaab unless Congress explicitly grants him the power to do more.

January 26th Raid

Fortunately, the raid this past Thursday provides an excellent counter-example of the previous drone strike for how U. S. involvement in Somalia should look. In the raid, a U. S. special operations forces killed a top leader and organizer of Al-Shabaab, Bilal al-Sudani.

According to CBS, “[al-Sudani] has a long history as a terrorist in Somalia. Before he joined ISIS, he was designated by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2012 for his role in [the group] Shabaab, helping foreign fighters to travel to an Al Shabaab training camp, facilitating financing for foreign violent extremists in Somalia.”

In his statement about the raid Defense Secretary Lloyd Astin said, “This action leaves the United States and its partners safer and more secure, and it reflects our steadfast commitment to protecting Americans from the threat of terrorism at home and abroad.”

It is clear that this raid was limited in nature and specifically targeted a leader of Al-Shabaab in Somalia. In the statements about the raid, there hasn’t been any mention of broader social, economic, or political goals that the U. S. has regarding the FGS or the general situation in East Africa. If the United States is going to continue to be militarily involved in Somalia, then the January 26th raid, not the January 20th drone strike, is what it should look like.

God Bless,

Hunter Burnett