Up Next: Election Day
Thoughts about the elections coming up on Tuesday.
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Election Day
To be honest, I don’t really have an idea what this newsletter is going to be about. Typically, I have a rough outline with at least the various sections figured out before I even start writing; that is not the case today. Hopefully, I can figure it out as I go.
Let’s start with the elections on Tuesday. I think Republicans are going to trounce Democrats pretty much across the board this year. I pretty much never write about polls, but the polls within the last week or so have the Republicans winning and winning big on Tuesday. While I don’t usually put that much stock in polls, these polls are so close to Election Day that they are more likely to accurately reflect broad trends.
That doesn’t mean that every Republican everywhere is going to win or there won’t be any surprise losses for Republicans, but I do think it will be an overall good night for Republicans. For the House of Representatives, the question isn’t whether Republicans are going to gain control but how large of a majority they will have. The Senate is much closer. I won’t be surprised if the Democrats maintain control of the Senate, but I would probably predict a seat or two to be picked up by Republicans to flip control.
In years past, I would probably be more excited about a Republican wave, but this time around I am almost indifferent to it. I think a Republican, and Kevin McCarthy, controlled House is going to be a circus and general embarrassment. I have little to no respect for McCarthy as I don’t think he has many principles other than having power, and I don’t think he is a competent enough leader to get anything of substance done. As a result, I expect a whole lot of owning the libs, attempted impeachments of President Biden, investigations into Hunter Biden, and messaging bills that have no shot of passing (and are properly poorly written anyway) but are meant to grab headlines.
If I had to pick, I would much rather the Republicans win the Senate. This would serve as an excellent check on any of President Biden’s nominees, judicial or otherwise, that are radically progressive. Also, I have nothing but the utmost respect for Mitch McConnell as a party leader, and his ability to keep members together and in line when need be is unmatched.
Unless all of the polls are completely inaccurate, it is almost guaranteed that we will have a divided government for at least two years. A divided government in which pretty much nothing drastic gets done is actually why I am not completely indifferent to the Republicans winning big on Tuesday. I like the idea of the Republicans being a check to prevent Democrats from wielding total power.
This is another great example of how remarkable our system of government is and the wisdom that the framers of the Constitution had when they were setting it up. Right now, almost everybody recognizes that we live in an incredibly polarized time. There seem to be two diametrically opposed worldviews vying for power with very little consensus.
How does our system deal with this reality? Well, we currently have a unified government, but the moderates have all of the power. For example, any bill that wants to pass the Senate must get the approval of the most moderate Democrat in the Senate, Joe Manchin. In any other system, a senator from West Virginia would be a complete unknown, but in our system, he is the power broker.
An obscure senator from West Virginia having so much power seems like a terrible and undemocratic idea. It’s important to recognize why Manchin has so much power though: he is a moderate. If Joe Manchin were an ultra-progressive Senator who always voted along party lines, then he would fall into obscurity and the power would shift away from him.
For example, Sherrod Brown is a senator from Ohio. Donald Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020 and the entire state is only moving more towards the Republican Party. This puts Brown in a similar position as Manchin; a Democrat Senator in a Republican state that would probably only gain popularity by going against his party. The difference is that Brown has voted with President Biden 98% of the time. As a result, Chuck Schumer isn’t on the phone with Brown negotiating bills in order to gain Brown’s support like he is with Manchin. It is the moderate Manchin that gets to shape what is and is not included in a bill because the Democrats can’t pass anything without him.
Moderation is particularly important during times of intense partisan passion as we have now because the temptation is greater for each side to make brash and radical changes that are detrimental to those not in power. In order for changes to happen, there must be broad, nationwide support that is inherently moderate. If nobody wants to moderate, then nothing happens at the Federal level and the states handle it.
I am so against the administrative state and presidents ruling via emergency/executive orders because they work against our constitutional structure. Instead of moderating or accepting deadlock, Congress has handed much of its power to the Executive Branch and now demands the President act.
For example, Republicans in 2019 could not successfully pass funding for the border wall that then President Trump wanted to build. Putting aside my agreements with that policy, it was not popular enough to pass the necessary threshold to become law. Instead of continuing to work through persuasion, as democracy requires, Donald Trump declared an emergency and redirected funds for the wall. Whether this was technically legal or not is beside the point, it was deliberately finding a way around working within our constitutional system as its designed.
Similarly this year, Democrats could not get broad enough support to pass a student loan “forgiveness” plan. As a result, the Biden administration published an executive order that cited the COVID-19 pandemic as an emergency requiring the forgiveness of up to $10,000 for individual student loan borrowers. I think this is a terrible policy on its face (as I wrote at the time), but to enact it outside of our constitutional structure is extra infuriating.
Getting back to the upcoming elections, the gridlock that will be created by a divided government could very well lead to more pressure on the Biden administration to rule unilaterally. At the same time, Republicans are going to make a fuss about how much money the Biden administration is spending and wants to spend. This will give them the excuse they need to play the role of obstructionist and stand against any policies that the Biden administration wants to get done.
Now, I am a sucker for a political party that wants to get our country’s spending under control, but it is much easier for a political party to talk about too much spending when they are out of power. Whenever parties get in power themselves, they seem to forget all about the negatives of spending so much money.
This brings me to 2024 and hopefully a close to this newsletter. While the race for control over the center this year will be close, the 2024 cycle is almost guaranteed to swing the way of Republicans. There will be 33 senate seats up for election and 23 of those seats are currently held by Democrats. Some of these 23 Democrats are in safe states for Democrats like Washington and New York; however, the majority are in Republican or battleground states. For example, Democrats will have to defend seats in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The Republicans will probably not flip all of these seats, but they will almost certainly win some of them. Their chances will be helped in these states, and possibly others, if the Senators currently holding these seats decide to retire instead of run for reelection. It is much more difficult to defeat an incumbent, so any retirements, and there will likely be some, will only benefit Republicans. Meanwhile, the toughest states for Republicans to defend in 2024 will be… Texas and Florida. Needless to say, it’s almost all gain for Republicans in the Senate in 2024 regardless of intervening events.
Assuming a divided government, Republicans are going to do a lot of talking over the next two years about the amount of government spending; however, as soon as 2024 they could have unified control of the government again. It’ll be interesting to see then how much talking about government spending the Republicans will do if they get unified control. More importantly, it’ll be interesting to see how much action they take to actually curtail government spending. Considering entitlement reform hasn’t been talked about by Republicans since Trump’s ascendence in the party, I have my doubts that any serious action will be taken at all.
God Bless,
Hunter Burnett