This is Why We Send Aid

The Russian internal turmoil is exactly why US aid to Ukraine is worth the investment.

Welcome back to The Burnett Breakdown. As you may have seen last week, I have restarted The Burnett Breakdown Podcast where I break down some of the most important news stories of the past week. You can listen on the podcast platform of your choice or watch on YouTube. As always, please like, subscribe, comment, and share far and wide.

Overnight Coup

For the last few days, I have been working diligently on an excellent newsletter all about how the Titan tragedy is an example of the human tendency toward taking risks for the sake of adventure. It was insightful, well-written, and addressed a topic that has been in the news all week. All of that work was literally done away with overnight when Russia decided to devolve into a civil war that lasted less than 24 hours. Now that newsletter will likely stay in the dustpan of my drafts to go unseen forever. Tis the life of writing about current events I guess.

In case it’s not obvious from my last-second audible, the situation in Russia is a really big deal. There is A LOT that we simply don’t know and can’t know since we are attempting to get information out of an autocratic regime that has basically wiped out the free press. Not to mention, Russia pumps the atmosphere full of propaganda and lies that discerning what is true can be virtually impossible for average Joes who don’t have inside sources within the regime like the United States intelligence departments.

Nonetheless, it is clear that whatever happened in Russia is nothing to ignore or scoff at.

So, what exactly happened at least as far as we can know? Basically, it appears that Putin in Russia was facing a military coup that had the potential to threaten his regime or thrust Russia into a civil war.

Let me start by explaining some of the terms and who the major figures are. Obviously, the guy in charge who rules Russia with an iron fist is Vladimir Putin. As any dictator does, Putin has put people in positions of power in the Russian government with the only qualifying characteristic being their loyalty to him. He also has set up his regime in such a way that there are many competing powers who all rely on him for their legitimacy.

One of the individuals that Putin elevated to a position of power is a guy by the name of Yevgeny Prighozin. Prigohzin is the head of what amounts to a private military group called Wagner Group (the “W” is pronounced like a “V”). This Wagner Group has actively participated in conflicts across the globe acting in Russia’s interest. It was very active in the civil war in Syria where its scorched earth tactics helped Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s President, maintain power. Most recently, the Wagner Group has played a central role in Russia’s fight against Ukraine- in particular, the fight for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

The fight for Bakhmut (and for all of Ukraine) proved much more challenging for the Russians than they originally expected. The Ukrainian forces were able to bleed the Wagner Group dry of ammunition and inflict immense casualties over a city that had little strategic benefit. During the fighting, Prigohzin shared videos criticizing many in the Russian military leadership for being ineffective and accused them of withholding ammunition from his group. Apparently, Prigohzin’s anger did not subside when his forces were eventually able to take the city of Bakhmut.

Two of the military leaders that have faced much of Prigohzin’s wrath are Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s top general Valery Gerasimov. On Friday night, things escalated when Prigohzin accused the Defense Ministry of striking his Wagner Group’s forces and inflicting many casualties. He went a step further and declared war against the Russian Ministry of Defense saying he will march to the city of Rostov and onward to Moscow in order to topple the corrupt officials (Shoigu and Gerasimov) leading the Ukrainian war effort.

Staying true to his word, reports started trickling in that Prigohzin and his Wagner Group forces left Ukraine and successfully crossed into Russia in spite of commands from Moscow not to let them. They made their way to Rostov where videos started surfacing of him in control of the city.

Rostov is an important city as it is the largest city in southern Russia and only 60 miles from Ukraine’s border where the war is raging. It’s also home to the Russian southern military district command- basically the headquarters of the Ukrainian invasion in southern Russia. Prigohzin did not just take the city, but he gained control over the military facilities in the city and the military supplies that were stockpiled for use in Ukraine.

Then, Prigohzin started his mad dash to Moscow. The thinking was that Prigohzin was trying to reach Moscow as quickly as possible before military reinforcements could arrive. There were reports of Russian military forces tearing up the main road that leads to Moscow, M4, and building trenches to slow down the progressing Wagner Group. Needless to say, Russia was in a precarious situation.

In a turn of events that I’m not sure anyone was expecting, Prigohzin got within 124 miles of Moscow and decided to stop the march on the Russian capital. After striking a deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Prigohzin’s Wagner Group agreed to stop the uprising, turn around, and return to their posts in Ukraine.

According to the deal: Prigozhin will have all charges dropped against him and will leave Russia and live in Belarus, Wagner fighters who did not take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, and Wagner fighters who did take place will not be charged. There may be some agreed upon leadership changes to the Russian military leadership, but that has not necessarily been reported at this moment.

So, What?

I’m not going to do much analysis of the deal itself, as I have no idea whether it’s a win, loss, or something in between for Putin and/or Prigozhin. I’m not going to speculate on what this means for the future of Russia or the future of the Putin regime. I’m not even going to analyze what this means for America.

I am going to make the argument though that this is exactly why the United States, and the rest of the Western world, has provided aid to Ukraine and why it should continue to do so in the future. Regardless of the outcome, it is clear that this brief coup created immense panic within the Russian government. They would not have been ripping up their own infrastructure if they weren’t worried.

It also made abundantly clear to the Russian people, including many within the Russian fighting forces, that Putin’s regime is not invincible. He made public statements that he was going to wipe the Wagner Group and Prigozhin off the face of the Earth only to make a deal with him in which Prigozhin gets a complete pardon? That doesn’t make Putin come across as someone who has everything under control.

If one assumes Russia under Putin is an adversary of the United States (which I do), then this chaos and instability within Putin’s Russia can only abound to the benefit of the United States. The chaos and instability is only happening because of the prolonged war in Ukraine.

If the United States, with other countries, had not provided Ukraine with support, then the Ukrainian army may have survived the initial invasion but likely not much longer after that. This means that Putin’s grip on power would have been strengthened, as he could point to the expansion of Russian territory in Ukraine as a notch on his nationalist belt. He also would have been in possession of millions more men that could be drafted into the military at a moment’s notice. This isn’t even mentioning the vast amount of resources that Ukraine has that would’ve been in the hands of Russia.

Instead, the United States and its allies made the decision to support the Ukrainians in their fight against Russia. The United States has given $113 billion worth of military assistance so far. At the same time, the United States spent $6.5 trillion in all of fiscal year 2022. In other words, the United States has been able to create chaos and weaken one of its two major adversaries for the price of roughly 1.74% of its annual spending. I’m about as much of a deficit hawk as anyone and I would take that return on investment any day of the week.

An armed rebellion that ends with the leader still alive at the end does not happen in healthy, strong, unified, and thriving nations. No matter whether that armed rebellion lasts 24 hours or 24 months. Russia is weaker today than it was before its invasion of Ukraine, and the aid sent by the United States along other countries is responsible for that. The United States should keep that in mind and continue to support Ukraine.

God Bless,

Hunter Burnett