DeSantis, Scott, and Trump

Will pessimism win out?

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Optimists vs. Pessimists

One of the main questions dividing conservatives right now is about the current state of America: how bad is it? Conservatives of all stripes recognize that progressive policies, some currently in place and others advocated for, make America a less free and prosperous country; but, there is a serious divide over just how much damage progressive policies have already done and what should be done about it.

Put another way: is American decline nearly at the point of no return or is American exceptionalism and resilience still strong enough to keep America’s greatness intact? In a sense, it’s a fight between optimists and pessimists.

This is a vitally important issue. If America is nearly at the point of no return, then desperate times call for desperate measures. This was essentially the “Flight 93 Election” argument made in 2016 by Michael Anton that advocated for conservatives to support Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Anton wrote, “The election of 2016 is a test—in my view, the final test—of whether there is any virtù left in what used to be the core of the American nation.” Replace 2016 with 2024 and you have virtually the same argument being made by conservatives today.

On the other hand, if American exceptionalism is resilient, as it has proven to be in spite of the many threats it has faced through the years, then conservatives don’t have to use fear of progressives as their means of persuasion but can rely on the merit of their own policies to paint an inspiring vision of the future.

Donald Trump epitomized the pessimistic view of America recently in his town hall with CNN. He said,

So, with all of that, I think it’s a shame that – what happened. I think it’s a very sad thing for our country. I think it’s a very sad thing, frankly, for the world, because, if you look at what’s gone to our country, our country has gone to hell. Our borders are bad. Our military has been bad.

You look at the taxes, you look at inflation, what’s happened to inflation, it’s just destroying our country. We have really become, in many ways, a Third World country. And it’s very sad what’s happened in this administration.

It doesn’t get much more pessimistic than comparing America to a Third World country. I mention Trump because he is obviously running for President and currently leading the polls to become the Republican candidate in 2024. This means that his pessimistic view of America is appealing to at least some segment of the Republican base. In fact, Trump’s pessimistic view of America is what makes him so appealing because they feel like he understands their plight.

Tim Scott

Now, I want to compare Trump with the two Republicans that announced their campaigns to run against Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024: Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis.

Tim Scott, Senator from South Carolina, is seemingly running the opposite campaign of Trump. I don’t mean that he’s running as an anti-Trump candidate, but he is running with an overtly positive message about the greatness of America. In his announcement video (technically he was announcing the formation of an exploratory committee), Scott is seen at Fort Sumter in South Carolina where the first shots of the Civil War rang out.

The message is clear: America has faced challenges before and overcome them. Notice, Tim Scott still recognizes the same challenges facing America that Trump does, such as crime-ridden neighborhoods, failing schools, and crushing inflation. However, Scott doesn’t let these challenges defeat the message of optimism and faith in America that he clearly believes in.

In his presidential announcement speech, this message of optimism is even more apparent with him starting his speech with how thankful he is to be a part of the greatest nation on Earth. It is hard to listen to Tim Scott and feel depressed about the state of the country, even while he acknowledges that everything isn’t rainbows and daffodils.

Ron DeSantis

The other major presidential announcement this week came from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. I’ll come back to his Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk in a second, but here is his announcement video.

Right off the bat, DeSantis leads with the problems facing America: border disaster, crime infestation, families hurting, and a floundering President. He then follows these up with some optimism and points to Florida as evidence that these challenges can be overcome.

Following his Twitter Spaces, DeSantis went on Fox News with Trey Gowdy where he opined, “We know the country is on the wrong track. We see it with our eyes. We feel it in our bones. We see the border being overrun. We see crime infesting the cities. We see the Federal Government making it more difficult for families to make ends meet.” Once again, he followed this up with a hint of optimism by saying that it doesn’t have to be this way and he is going to lead “a great American comeback”- a phrase that is clearly going to be the motto of the DeSantis campaign.

DeSantis is certainly striking a more pessimistic tone than Tim Scott, but he is certainly more optimistic than Trump.

My Thoughts

While I’ve written about Nikki Haley before (see here), I am pretty confident that one of Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, or Tim Scott will be the Republican nominee in 2024. I simply don’t think that any of the other candidates, or potential candidates, have much of a shot (and Tim Scott is probably a reach).

I am 100% in the Tim Scott camp when it comes to his disposition towards America’s current situation. There are certain issues that America faces, many of which lay at the feet of progressives, but this country has faced significantly tougher challenges before and persevered. This isn’t guaranteed, as Scott makes clear, but the problems that America faces pale in comparison to the vast majority of countries across the world. An ounce of gratitude for this country is appreciated.

DeSantis, on the other hand, is trying to toe the line between pessimism and optimism. I think he overemphasizes some of the problems facing the country and overpromises some of the solutions. For example, what is his plan to make common sense a common virtue again as President? He can’t just declare that people have common sense.

With that said, he claims that America is in decline but not completely ruined. He also expresses optimism that an American comeback is possible with the right policies in place. I much prefer Scott’s optimism, but I don’t think DeSantis is irrationally pessimistic.

Meanwhile, Trump’s inability to view America as an exceptional country when anyone except himself is leading it is nonsensical. He offers no optimism other than he is the savior that America needs and once he’s elected president he will make everything right in the country. Apparently, conservatives are just supposed to forget that he did pretty much nothing to fix our immigration system, increased the national debt, attempted to steal an election, and divided people more than he unified them, but I digress.

Unfortunately, pessimism plays extremely well in a primary election. The Republican base doesn’t really want to hear that the challenges facing the country, while important, aren’t significant enough to undermine the American experiment. They want to hear that this country is going to hell and a handbasket because of those stupid liberals and if you don’t elect me, then the country as we know it is over. Nothing motivates quite like fear.

But, I don’t think pessimism and fear work really well in a general election. I don’t think the median voter wants to hear how crappy the country they live in is over and over again. They want their problems addressed, such as crime and inflation, but most Americans understand that those problems don’t define America. If they did, Republicans would have done much better than they did in the 2022 midterms when all they preached was pessimism.

This leads me to the unpopular opinion that the most electable Republican in a general election running for President is Tim Scott. I think: Tim Scott would beat Biden pretty handily in a general election; it would be a much tighter election between Biden and Ron DeSantis; and Donald Trump would lose (again).

Alas, we have a primary system that will likely lead to a less likable candidate winning the nomination, so I look forward to the Trump vs. Biden rematch. Pessimism wins again.

God Bless,

Hunter Burnett