Debate Preview

Some things that I will be paying attention to during the debate tonight.

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Republican Debate

I love politics and debating, so political debates are kind of like my own personal Super Bowl. This means that my newsletter this weekend will probably be a breakdown of the debate and the individual responses of each politician. In lieu of not writing a newsletter this past weekend though due to travel, I figured that I would write a brief breakdown of five things that I will be paying attention to in the Republican Primary Debate tonight.

1. How many people will watch the debate?

I think the question that ultimately matters most is simply how many people will watch the debate tonight. This is just personal experience, but it seems to me that this debate has been one of the least talked about presidential debates of my lifetime. I don’t know if that is actually true or not, but I do know that with the headlines being full of Trump indictments and the Hunter Biden political scandal, there has been a lot of other newsworthy stuff to cover instead of the upcoming debate. Not to mention, the debate is on Fox News, and as more and more people are cutting the cord on cable, it could limit the number of people who can watch the debate.

If nobody but political nerds watches the debate, then it simply won’t matter what happens. People will read or hear about the debate through whatever news media they consume and won’t go back to watch the debate themselves. Mike Pence is a traitor to the cause and performed like a wet blanket? Well, of course, he did. Vivek Ramaswamy was eloquent and intelligent? I’ve always liked that guy, so I believe it. This media-fueled partisan lens will be true no matter how many people watch the debate, but the more people that watch the debate for themselves, the less susceptible they will be to partisan nonsense.

Typically, debates are when people who want to be civically engaged, but don’t follow day-to-day politics, begin to tune in to what is happening in the presidential race. If these people don’t watch the debate, then any candidate not named Trump is going to have no shot at winning the nomination. However, if this segment of the population tunes in en masse to watch, then there could be some serious shake-up in the polls.

2. Was it a good idea for Donald Trump to skip?

This brings me to the giant elephant in the room: Donald Trump. Pretty much all of the media coverage of the debate has been about whether Donald Trump would participate or not. As 2016 and 2020 demonstrated, Donald Trump is a ratings machine, so his decision not to participate could seriously impact the previous question.

It’s certainly understandable why Donald Trump would skip the debate. He’s got a massive lead in every poll, so he would be the target of everyone’s attacks. Why open himself up to political attacks from his opponents when he doesn’t need to? Participating in the debate would have been full of downsides with no real upside. Trump and his team know this so they decided he should skip the debate and do a prerecorded interview with Tucker Carlson instead.

This will be a great decision if nobody watches the debate tonight. However, the more people watch the debate, the more it will hurt Trump that he did not participate. Polls show him with a massive lead, but it is likely that many of the people saying that Trump is their top candidate don’t follow day-to-politics. Trump is likely the only candidate that they know, so he is their default answer. If they tune in to the debate and Trump isn’t there, then that leaves the door open for another candidate to catch their attention. Plus, the candidates who do participate will likely be attacking Trump and he won’t be there to respond.

(As a personal side note, thank God Trump is not participating. As much as I love political debates, I only watched a brief part of the first debate between him and Biden because I couldn’t handle him acting like a petulant child interrupting Biden. Hopefully, this debate is more pleasant.)

3. Will Chris Christie do any real damage to Trump?

The candidates who will likely attack Trump the most are the anti-Trump candidates, such as Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie. I’m not going to bother talking about Asa Hutchinson, as nobody has any idea who he is and I can’t imagine he will do anything of note at the debate to change that. Christie, on the other hand, is a brilliant debater. This was put on full display in 2016 when he famously dissected and demolished Marco Rubio in the New Hampshire debate.

Chris Christie has decided this election cycle to target Donald Trump. In almost every interview, Christie has fired shot after shot at the former president. He will undoubtedly do the same in the debate, and if anyone can do serious damage to Trump, it’s Christie.

Now, I don’t think Christie has a shot at winning the nomination, but I am interested to see if he sees a bump in his poll numbers after the debate. Also, I think there are more than a few Republicans that are absolutely sick of Donald Trump, but they will defend him against Democratic attacks. Will these Republicans be more open to a seething attack against Trump from a Republican like Christie?

My gut tells me that Christie will come out as the winner of the debate and that he will do some damage to Trump’s poll numbers by landing a substantial shot or two. That could be just the thing that another candidate (maybe DeSantis or Scott) needs to make up ground on the former president.

But, again, this will only matter if people actually watch the debate. If nobody watches the debate, then no matter how substantial of an attack Christie lays on Trump, the only people who will see it are the viewers of CNN and MSNBC who already love watching people criticize the former president. The only way that Trump will actually be damaged by Christie is if Republicans who are tired of Trump tune in to the debate and find themselves nodding along.

4. How much are the 2020 election and Trump indictments discussed?

Moving on to the actual substance of the debate, I am interested in how much Trump and Trump-related themes are discussed. If a significant portion of the debate is dedicated to discussing whether Trump should be indicted or whether the 2020 election was stolen, then Trump will win the night even though he isn’t there. Many of the candidates will feel obligated to defend Trump against the “weaponized” Federal Government, which will only make Republicans feel better about supporting the guy.

In a sane political world, the candidates running against someone would be jumping at the opportunity to call their opponent corrupt. Unfortunately, we are not in a sane political world and the less Trump is discussed, the better it will be for everybody. When he is mentioned, I hope it is with measured attacks, not defenses for why he is the victim.

5. What are the candidates’ positions on Ukraine?

Finally, I will be listening keenly to how the candidates answer the inevitable question regarding American aid to Ukraine. While I do very much want the United States to continue sending aid to Ukraine, I am more interested in hearing serious debate about the issue. Because it is one of the major dividing issues within the Republican Party, it will certainly be a question that is asked, and it will be interesting to hear the stance that each candidate takes.

Ideally, the candidates would hash out their different views on specific ways to fix our immigration system and healthcare system. They would talk about ways to reform our entitlement programs so that we can cut down on our national debt. They would discuss specific regulations that they would be interested in changing in order to produce a thriving economy. Unfortunately, those discussions are few and far between, so I am not going to hold my breath expecting it in this debate.

However, the debate over aid to Ukraine is one of the few areas of lively debate right now on the Right. What should America’s role in the world be? How does the conflict in Ukraine impact America’s national security? Can we afford to continue sending military supplies and aid like we are? How will our handling of this situation impact the way our adversaries and allies view us? I am interested in how these questions are answered.

God Bless,

Hunter Burnett