Welcome back to The Burnett Breakdown. Please like, subscribe, and share. You can comment if you think I’m full of nonsense as well.
All About the Leak
Starting last year, written paragraphs of classified material started to percolate on Discord, an online group messaging platform. Those written paragraphs soon turned into pictures of classified documents beginning this year. The leaker, identified as 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, apparently leaked the documents to a group of individuals interested in military hardware in order to provide information and impress them. Teixeira possessed top-secret security clearance for his role as a computer network technician.
Jim Geraghty of National Review wrote out the best summary of the material that was leaked by Teixeira. It‘s a lengthy quotation but worth reading:
The Ukrainians are on a pace to run out of air-defense missiles by May; the document stated that the Ukrainians’ “ability to provide medium range air defense to protect the [front lines] will be completely reduced by May 23. UKR assessed to withstand 2-3 more wave strikes.”
Western plans to arm and train Ukraine’s army, “including the status of nine Ukrainian brigades, the amount of armor and artillery in each one and the precise number of shells and precision-guided rockets Ukraine is firing each day.” As The Economist surmises, “If accurate, the data could allow Russian military intelligence to identify the specific brigades that have probably been tasked with breaching Russian defenses at the outset of the offensive. That, in turn, could allow Russia to carefully monitor those units to assess the location and timing of an offensive. One slide indicates that Ukraine’s 10th Corps is likely to command the operation, which will now make its headquarters an obvious Russian target. Another shows when the muddy ground is expected to harden sufficiently for heavy armored vehicles to pass over.”
U.S. intelligence agencies have “penetrated nearly every aspect of the Russian intelligence apparatus and military command structure.”
U.S. assessments that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to face significant challenges and achieve limited gains in the coming year.
“China approved provision of lethal aid to Russia in its war in Ukraine earlier this year and planned to disguise military equipment as civilian items.”
As CNN described, “One document attributed to a signals intelligence report said that Jordan’s Foreign Ministry in late February planned to assure Beijing about its interest in a continued economic relationship, after Beijing reportedly complained that Chinese companies were not involved in the country’s 5G network rollout. Another said Nicaragua was negotiating with a Chinese company for the construction of a deepwater port on its Caribbean coast, attributing this information to signals intelligence.”
“President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt . . . a major recipient of U.S. aid, recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia.”
Information about secret conversations at the highest level of the South Korean government, revealing that the U.S. is intercepting the electronic communications of President Yoon Suk Yeol and his top aides.
Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán identified the United States as one of his party’s “top three adversaries” during a “political strategy session” on February 22.
Russian intelligence officers bragged that they had “convinced the . . . United Arab Emirates ‘to work together against US and UK intelligence agencies.’”
I’ll get to some of the responses to the leak in a second, but it’s worth highlighting some of the leaked information since some people are talking about the leak as if it is a whistleblower report exposing the corruption of the “regime.” Spoiler: it’s not.
Some of the information is damaging though. Potentially the most damaging aspect of the leak is the potential for the sources of information in other countries to be exposed. For example, the acknowledgment that the U.S. intelligence community has breached virtually every level of Russia’s intelligence and military apparatus will likely lead Russia to investigate the origins of this intelligence to America. Not only does this put American sources in danger, it makes America less safe.
This applies to all of the information that was revealed because countries know exactly what information the United States knows and can look specifically at the individuals with access to that information. Even if the information itself seems insignificant, the source of the information is of infinite value to the United States.
The information leaked regarding the war in Ukraine is particularly damaging to the war effort there. Revealing to Russia the amount of arms and location of those arms forced Ukraine to change war plans. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the United States supporting Ukraine in the way that they have (as I’ve made clear before I think you should be in favor), sabotaging the Ukrainian war effort isn’t in anyone’s interest.
The leak also damages the United States’ relationship with its allies. Israel and South Korea aren’t going to appreciate the embarrassment and betrayal that comes with the public acknowledgment that the United States is actively spying on them. Not to mention, countries such as Great Britain and Australia, two countries vital to the United States as they confront China, may be less willing to share intelligence with the United States if they can’t be certain that it won’t be leaked.
Responses
I don’t typically write about how people respond to a particular news event, but the responses from some self-proclaimed conservatives have been simply off the wall. I’ll start with the most faux-populist of them all: Tucker Carlson. Here Tucker is on his show critiquing the media for… treating someone who broke the law as a criminal?
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1646684037023514630
There is so much wrong with Tucker’s nonsense that I’m not sure where to start, but I guess I’ll start with the idea that Teixeira is a “whistleblower.” A whistleblower is someone who has inside information on an organization and then exposes the illegal or immoral activity being done by said organization. What immoral or illegal behavior did Teixeria expose?
Unless you consider spying on our allies as the epitome of unethical, there was no immoral behavior “exposed.” Carlson points to the media’s coverage of the war in Ukraine, particularly some of their claims that Ukrainian victory was inevitable, as proof that the government has been lying. How does the media being wrong prove government corruption? An analyst on MSNBC said Ukraine was guaranteed to win the war and the government, which has never made such a claim, is proven corrupt? How does that make any sense?
The always reliably foolish Marjorie Taylor Greene reiterated Carlson’s claim that Texeira was a “whistleblower.”
Plus, it simply isn’t true that “all of the media” has been proclaiming Ukrainian victory. If Carlson would bother to listen to one episode of Ukraine: The Latest, the best and most in-depth podcast about the war in Ukraine, from The Telegraph, he would know this to be true.
Carlson also makes the claim that “as we speak, American soldiers are fighting Russian soldiers.” This is meant to prove once again that the government has been lying about American involvement in the war. The only problem is that this simply isn’t true. Yes, there are US special forces in Ukraine working at the US Embassy protecting US diplomats. No, these special forces are not actively fighting Russian forces.
How do I know this is true? First, there has been absolutely no such reporting in spite of this being one of the most widely covered wars in history. More importantly, the thought that American soldiers were actively killing Russian soldiers and Vladimir Putin is doing exactly nothing about it is laughable. The mere presence of American special forces in Ukraine, especially when there is an American embassy, does not imply those special forces are actively fighting. If they were and it was found out, it would be an enormous scandal in the United States, but nothing compared to the scandal it would be in Russia.
Carlson also completely misdirects by mentioning the lack of prosecution for the Supreme Court leaker. I am completely in favor of finding and prosecuting the Supreme Court leaker who leaked the Dobbs decision ahead of time; however, the failure to do so doesn’t mean Teixeira should get off. I think the Supreme Court leaker did something morally abhorrent, but it is still not as significant as leaking sensitive information that leaves the United States more vulnerable and weaker on the international stage.
There is also this notion, voiced by Candace Owens, that the media isn’t covering the contents of the leak but only condemning the leaker. I quoted someone “in the media” going verse by verse, and citing other media reports in the process, covering the material that was leaked earlier in this newsletter. The idea that the media isn’t covering the contents of the leak is mind-numbingly stupid.
If you disagree with America’s involvement in Ukraine, then fine I can understand that position. Let’s just not lie to ourselves and venerate someone like Jack Teixeira by calling him a “whistleblower” who “exposed the regime” when all he did was unnecessarily expose American intelligence to the benefit of America’s adversaries.
God Bless,
Hunter Burnett
Well said!
Do one next on Snowden!